High oil prices cost us at the pump, play into the prices of most consumer goods and will cut 2011 airline profits in half in spite of the recent growth in air travel says a new forecast out today.
In a revised profit forecast, International Air Transport Association said it was downgrading its airline industry profit outlook for 2011 to $8.6 billion from the $9.1 billion it had estimated just last December.
“This is a 46 percent fall in net profits compared to the US$16 billion earned by the industry in 2010,” IATA said in a statement.
The new forecasts were based on oil priced at a average of $96 per barrel of Brent crude over the year, compared to $84 a barrel used in the December forecast. The price of oil spiked to $115 today, shy of last weeks high of $120.In February, responding to unrest in Egypt, American Airlines added fuel surcharges of as much as $5 each way on many routes with United Continental Holdings Inc. adding a $3 each-way surcharge. At the time, British Airways said they would increase the fuel surcharge they already have in place.
Now, with this latest announcement signaling an approaching hit on profits, airline shareholders are already in pain. The 2008 spike in oil prices sent airlines into a 2-year profit tailspin.
In the twenties, the most popular map used for flying was a dogsled trail-map that showed the ‘roadhouses’ where mushers would rest and feed their dogs. For a pilot to rely on of these maps is ironic because early mushers justifiably weren’t happy to see the airplane arrive, as it posed a threat to their livelihood.
Noel Wien referring to a map inflight
As I pointed out earlier, modern airplanes are usually equipped with GPS, most of which include a terrain database that alerts pilots of any granite obstructions along their route of flight-a huge safety improvement.
Many planes are also equipped to display other aircraft traffic, which offers a tremendous peace of mind to pilots.
An Era Alaska Dash 8 flies between Kenai and Anchorage
Search and rescue
In 1924 and 1925, there were times when no other pilots were in the state who could come search for you should any mechanical problems force you down. That one critical part or a radiator that had burst meant that you had to try and walk to civilization.
Airplanes today are equipped with a 406 MHz ELT (emergency locator transmitter) that can be immediately pinpointed to within 2 kilometers by a satellite. This means a rescue is possible in just hours instead of days or weeks.
TICKET PRICES
The going rate in the ’20s and ’30s was a dollar a mile, which meant that a trip from Fairbanks to Nome cost $520. Adjusted for inflation, that’s $6,248.
Today the 500-mile flight between those cities runs about $300. And Era Alaska has had $69 fares available recently for flights between Anchorage and Fairbanks-a distance of 260 miles.
WHAT HASN’T CHANGED?
Nature
The view in Alaska hasn’t changed much. And flying is still the best way to get a feel for how big the mountains and glaciers are and how much uninhabited land there is.
The harsh weather hasn’t relented either. Airlines are still flying in temperatures as low as minus 60 degrees fahrenheit with poor visibility that is often coupled with high winds, something that just isn’t as common in the rest of the U.S.
Preheating the engines and cabin on a cold winter morning on the North Slope
People
The eskimo villagers today are similar to their ancestors. Sure they enjoy a bit more technology, including 4-wheelers and DVD players, but they still subsistence hunt and fish and many of the same families that first saw my grandpa arrive in an airplane in the mid-twenties are there today.
When we complain about how tough our lives are, it’s not uncommon for a grandparent to chime in with their stories from the past to give us a little perspective. I’d love for a few of my fellow pilots to have the chance to walk fly in my grandpa’s boots for a week. Although, I must admit, I don’t think I could have done the things he did.
Fortunately for me, much of my knowledge about what my grandpa accomplished in the early days of flying were gained from a book about him called Noel Wien: Alaska Pioneer Bush Pilot. I’m forever thankful that this biography exists, as it keeps me from complaining about crew meals and layover hotels.
Finally, I’m going to leave you with proof of Alaska’s beauty. But to show you, you’ll need to step into an airplane that’s more than 50 years old; an airplane that modern manufacturers just haven’t been able to replace. Special thanks to pilot Jeff Carlin for taking us along with him.
Enjoy:
Cockpit Chronicles takes you along on some of Kent’s trips as an international co-pilot on the Boeing 757 and 767 based in Boston. Have any questions for Kent? Find him on Facebook or follow him on Twitter @veryjr.
Last week I found myself flying to London with a captain who had started his career in pretty much the same way I did-he too had worked for a couple of airlines in Alaska, albeit more than a decade before me.
As we headed out to dinner, we happened to run into another pilot I knew who, coincidentally, flew for Era Alaska just as I had. Even more surprising was that his co-pilot flew for an airline in the Northwest Territories of Canada.
We agreed to have dinner together at an Indian restaurant ten minutes from the hotel in London. While waiting for some tandoori to arrive, the subject of the Discovery Channel show, Flying Wild Alaska came up. It led to a few wistful stories about the times when we were doing that kind of flying, twenty to thirty years earlier.
“It looks like a lot of fun and adventure from the comfort of your living room, but it’s not as much fun when you’re low on gas, in a mile visibility while trying to read a map and hoping to cut the Mead River. It makes you appreciate this job (flying a Boeing across the Atlantic to London) so much more,” Hank said.
We all agreed. It’s nice to get a little perspective every now and then, and the Discovery Channel show about flying in the Alaskan bush gave us a not so gentle reminder.
But then someone began to check off the items a modern-day bush pilot has that we didn’t back then. At the top of the list was a GPS. While I had flown with a Loran-C for navigation, its accuracy up north wasn’t anything like the GPS. The other pilots at the table didn’t even have a Loran.
“Just a compass and a map up on the north slope.” Hank said.
Next up, I mentioned the real de-icing equipment they have now, not to mention the hangars. Just a few hours earlier I had been writing the de-icing post for Gadling, so the memories of crawling on the curved and slippery wing twelve feet in the air while scraping the ice off were fresh in my mind. Our de-ice ‘equipment’ at the time was a pump bottle you’d find at a garden store.
As tough as we had it, I imagined inviting perhaps another four pilots back from the past to join us. They would be the early bush pilots of the twenties and thirties who would have given anything to have the airplanes we had. So in deference to them, I thought I’d use a few of my grandpa’s photos to illustrate the differences in air travel in Alaska back then and today.
RUNWAYS
Gravel bars, while sometimes rough, were a preferred summertime runway.
During the first few years of flying in Alaska, there were no official runways. The most ideal landing spot was in Fairbanks, where flying really took hold, at a horse track that was converted into a landing strip. Outside of Fairbanks, landings were made in the summer on gravel bars along rivers or ‘domes’ which were treeless hill tops above a village. Locals made attempts at clearing runways, but their lengths were initially too short or had too many obstacles.
A few towns, such as Nome and Kotzebue were essentially treeless, but runways still needed to be built to accomodate airplanes on wheels since the ground was usually soft in the summer.
Winter flying opened up a lot of areas to landing, especially for airplanes equipped with skis. One concern was at the beginning and end of the season; when a decision had to be made whether to depart with skis or wheels. It wasn’t always obvious how much snow the destination airport would have. The short days in the winter presented a problem as well, since there was no lighting to mark the frozen ‘runway.’
What should we go with today, skis or wheels?
Airplanes with floats became an option starting in the thirties and that combination continues today as a popular way to get around during the five or so months out of the year that allow for it.
Bellanca float plane on the Chena river in Fairbanks in the ’30s
Today the main cities and towns all have runways that are lighted and plowed. So ski flying is used mainly for off-airport operations onto lakes, glaciers and even arctic ice-flows. But the airplane is still the most vital way to move about the state, as few towns outside of Anchorage and Fairbanks are connected by roads.
Kenai, Alaska airport today. Note the float plane ‘strip’ next to the paved runway.
AIRPLANES
Open cockpit flying
Aside from the landing gear choice, a huge number of changes have come about since the early days of flying in Alaska. In 1924, my grandpa, Noel Wien, was operating out of Fairbanks with an open cockpit biplane called a Hisso Standard that could seat two crammed-in passengers in the front seat. They were required to dress as if they were taking a long winter dog-sled ride, as the wind chill, even at 50 degrees fahrenheit, was bone chilling. This, coupled with the air-cooled engine, prevented year-round flying.
Note the two passengers in the front seat. Legroom wasn’t a complaint back then.
Passengers had to bundle up even in the summer when flying in the open-cockpit Standard
Heated, pressurized cabins make it possible to get around in a t-shirt for many passengers.
In winter of 1925, my grandpa toured the states to look for an air-cooled, fully enclosed cabin airplane that would be capable of flying through an Alaskan winter.
Unfortunately, that airplane didn’t exist yet in America. After visiting several manufacturers who insisted they’d have just such an airplane in another year, Noel settled on a Fokker F.III he found in New York. It had no brakes, the pilot sat outside and the engine was still water-cooled. However, the passengers would ride enclosed in a cabin inspired by a Pullman-train that included upholstered couch type seats, and curtains. At least the passengers would be warm. He operated that airplane for the next two winters before a fully enclosed cabin aircraft with air-cooled engines became available.
The first enclosed-cabin air service in Alaska. Although the pilot still sat in the open.
Passengers rode inside in leather armchair style seats
Today travelers flying in Alaska may find themselves tucked in a Cessna with fold down seats and freight strapped down next to them, or they might have the opportunity to fly between the major cities in an Alaska Airlines 737 “combi” configuration that places the freight in the front separated with a wall from the abbreviated passenger cabin.
Passengers behind a wall and freight in front on this Alaska 737 “Combi”
Turboprop aircraft like the Dash-8 and Beech 1900 are a common way to get people and freight around between the towns as well.
An Era Alaska Beech 1900 is loaded with freight from a dogsled
Performance
The 150 h.p. Hisso engine mounted to the large WWI Standard trainer provided enough horsepower to get out of some short strips, but only when the airplane wasn’t carrying a lot of weight. I ran across this video from 1927 that shows my grandpa departing Nome in a fully loaded Standard. I was a bit shocked at the lack of performance.
Compare that to a recent bush pilot competition in Valdez where highly modified Super Cubs and Maules compete for the shortest takeoff roll. Granted, the pilots are flying empty airplanes with a bit of a headwind, but my grandpa would have given anything for this kind of bush plane.
Reliability
The OX-5 and Hisso engines were able to fly between 50 and 300 hours before requiring an overhaul. My grandpa found that he could get closer to the 300 hour time if he changed the oil every five hours (essentially after each trip).
Today, the piston engines flown in Cessna 207s can go for 2,000 hours before an overhaul and the 1,100 horsepower turbine engines in a Beech 1900 can fly for 6,000 hours before being rebuilt.
Reports on who actually may have built the first aircraft may differ, but the Wright Brothers are the undisputed inventors of controlled fixed-wing powered flight. All the basics that made aviation possible were present on their plane when they took their first powered flight in 1903.
A lot has changed in the past century of aviation. No longer do we look our our airplane window and watch some poor guy manually start the engines. We may have lost the glory days of dressing up for that once-in-a-lifetime flight, but getting to far away destinations is easier and more affordable than ever. In this collection of clips, we’ll take you from the early 1900’s all the way to 2010 with the first test flight of the Airbus A380.
1910’s
1920’s
Of all the things man could do with a plane in the 20’s, they picked airborne duck hunting.
1930’s
In the 30’s, water based airports were far more popular than land based ports – and some of the largest aircraft of the time were water planes. In this video, you’ll see the massive Dornier DoX plane take to the skies. With its six twelve engines, passengers took a boat to board the plane.
1940’s
In the 40’s, aviation started to become glamorous – and fashion mixed very well with the sexy planes of this era. Models on shiny TWA Stratoliners traveled around the country showing off the latest in fashion.
1950’s
The Lockheed Constellation was one of the first planes designed specifially based upon requirements by an airline. TWA flew their first L-049 Constellation in 1945, and by the 50’s, she was still flying the only round-the-world scheduled flight in the world – Pan Am flight #1.
1960’s
In 1969, the Boeing 747 retailed for 13 million dollars. Just like with the Airbus A380 of today, people back then wondered whether there was a market for such a large plane. Airports invested millions to accommodate the 747
1970’s
In 1976, commercial aviation received its first and only supersonic jet plane. Concorde was so advanced, that she was still ahead of its time when she was retired in 2003.
1980’s
In the United States, commercial aviation saw the results of deregulation in the 80’s. New airlines popped up, fares went down and passenger loads went up. Competition was stuff, and by the end of the 80’s over 100 airlines had come and gone in the past decade, including major carriers like Brannif and Peoples Express.
1990’s
One of the biggest innovations in commerical aviation in the 90’s was the Boeing 777. It had been 25 years since the 747 took to the skies, and the world was in need of something new. The 777 has been a massive success for Boeing, and as of January 2011, 913 have been delivered.
2000’s
Despite a 375 million dollar price tag, 244 Airbus super-jumbos have been ordered. Deliveries to airlines took longer than expected, but Airbus is delivering planes on a pretty regular schedule.
A long time ago, in a travel world far away, you needed a printed ticket to get on an airplane and you probably got it from a travel agent. Now you buy online and there is no ticket, just a number. Not all that long ago, you needed special printed travel documents to go on a extended land or cruise vacation and you picked them up at your travel agent’s office. Now you don’t need those either and you probably don’t visit your travel agent’s office very often, if you even have one. Then, traveling meant being prepared with a trip to the library, book store and travel agency office for information . Now we click our way to expert status without leaving home.
We can easily book most travel options without a travel agent. That’s a fact. The big question though is: Should we?
These days about the only place you’ll find an airline ticket is on American Idol when when hopefuls get sent along to Hollywood. Travel agents still issue them but now it is mostly as a courtesy to clients too busy to do it on their own or as part of a package. Today, we can select the airline we want, when we want to fly and even a seat assignment, all online. Other types of travel as well, from land vacations to cruises, have been made available to click-and-book.
Where travel agents have the most visible value is being there for travelers when something goes wrong. But that does not happen all that much so those who are comfortable with the click-and-book method accept the risk.
More commonly, travel agents can offer great value that travelers could not get on their own.
That value may translate to lower prices, complementary upgrades, bonus amenities when traveling and other good things down the line, after booking. That “after booking” part is the unknown, difficult-to-measure factor that eludes many travelers.
Odds are up-front pricing on many elements of a travel purchase will be the similar or the same from one source or agent to another. Even compared to the service provider, be that an airline, car rental agency, tour company or cruise line, pricing is similar.
Or so it seems.
That similarity in price may be misleading and causes those with even a minimal online booking comfort level to think or say “What do I need this middleman for? I can do this myself.”
True, today we can do it ourselves. Do we save money? In the long run, probably not. Anything we can find online, travel agents can find too. They can also monitor pricing, economic, social or weather-related concerns that might affect your travel.
The big advantage of a travel agent today is very much like it was years ago, it just comes in different forms.
Your good travel agent will have all the information you need to make the most of your vacation. That may be as simple as sending along links to critical websites, basic but required literature on destinations or merely making sure all the T’s are crossed and the I’s dotted.
More importantly, your travel agent considers the act of booking the beginning of the transaction, not the end like the result of click-to-book methods. Once you have paid, you are done with the click-to-book way. Now all you have to do is make it to the airport on time for that flight and that is the end of it.
In today’s world, prices, availability and even the nature of travel are changing at a rapid pace. Websites update pricing and availability but offer little or no hope of passing new benefits available after the sale along to travelers. Click-to-book methods are pretty much done with you after payment is made.
Travel agents work on building or maintaining an ongoing business relationship with you and are easily accessible. Try emailing, tweeting or calling your click-to-book website.
Should your plans change, should you have questions or should you want to know more about where you are traveling and how you are getting there, your agent is just a phone call, email or tweet away.
A travel agent is “your friend” in the travel business. They are your friend who knows what is going on in the travel industry. They can put that information together with their knowledge of you for a winning combination that will reap huge rewards in the long run.
Need to book a quick business flight and be done with it? Click-to-book. Doing any actual traveling where memories, experiences, sights and sounds might be important? See a travel agent.