Airline profits may mean more elbow room for a little while

by Tom Johansmeyer on

The airline industry wants to thank you. Last year, it was mired in despair. The post-financial crisis recession left the carriers beleaguered and desperate for a turn of fortune. Corporate and leisure travel had fallen precipitously, and doubling down on extra fees, though prudent for profits, alienated both those considering a flight and the passengers with little choice but to hit the road. The brutality of 2009 was evident, and it seemed as though all there was for 2010 was the hope for something better.

Well, hope paid off.

Three quarters into this year, money is again beginning to flow, as a result of (finally) climbing fares, additional fees and an increase in passenger traffic. United Continental, Southwest and JetBlue have reported strong profits for the third quarter using a variety of tactics, but an increase in sales and higher prices appear to be the universal driver. And, this may translate to a bit more elbow room for you.
According to the Associated Press, airlines are beginning to bring back some of the routes they cut last year, as indicated by decisions at Delta and American Airlines to hire more flight attendants. The challenge, however, will be to increase capacity (and thus headcount) without imperiling this year’ hard-won profits.

The business of satisfying pent-up demand isn’t easy for the airline sector. After all, capacity can’t be added one seat at a time. Restoring a route to handle more passengers comes with it the obligation to fill the plane (to the extent possible) each time, in accordance with revenue per available seat mile (RASM) targets.

Nonetheless, the carriers seem ready to rise to the challenge. JetBlue is amping up fourth quarter capacity by up to 10 percent, with Delta looking at an increase of 5 percent to 10 percent. This follows even faster growth in September, according to the Associated Press:

Still, most of the airlines saw traffic rise even faster than capacity in September suggesting they have enough business to support the additional flights. The only exception was Delta, which added capacity slightly faster than traffic rose.

The moves come in anticipation of a strong 2011, according to Ray Neidl, an analyst for Maxim Group. He tells the associated press that the growth in capacity “is a little more long-term,” adding that “[d]espite the lackluster economy, it’s going to be a big year for airlines, especially as consolidation kicks in.”

So, what does this mean for the flying public?

Well, you may not have to occupy that middle seat for a little while, and the odds that someone else will be in it may be improving. The increase in capacity necessarily precedes an increase in sufficient demand to make it profitable, so enjoy it while you can! If the airlines can’t fill those new seats, a return to austerity could send you back to sharing an armrest.

[photo by Joe Shlabotnik via Flickr]

Fallen American Airlines could be next to merge … with JetBlue?

by Tom Johansmeyer on

American Airlines used to be the largest airline in the industry – now it’s third. Merger activity has narrowed the field, with Southwest–AirTran and United-Continental the latest deals that hit the sector. So, all eyes are on who will succumb to the urge to merge next, and American is being eyed as the next player.

According to a Forbes blog post, analysts from Morningstar believe that American Airlines “needs to make a big splash” to remain a player in an increasingly competitive market. The post continues:

“Once the industry’s largest carrier, [American Airlines] is now the third-largest…and any scale advantage it may have garnered is gone,” the Morningstar analysts write. “Ironically, AMR is at a substantial disadvantage, given that it steered clear of bankruptcy during the recession,” [Basili] Alukos and [Adam] Fleck say, pointing out that American’s labor rate is the industry’s highest on an equivalent basis.

So, who’s the right partner for American? The analysts at Morningstar are looking at JetBlue, especially given the latter’s “lighter cost structure.” Notes founder of Training the Street and former M&A investment banker Scott Rostan, “Three dominoes have fallen – Delta/Northwest, UAL/Continental and Southwest/AirTran.” He sees Alaska, Frontier and JetBlue as likely to make some noise.

[photo by Andrew Morrell Photography via Flickr]

Airlines getting scammed online, fighting back

by Tom Johansmeyer on

Airlines lose a boatload of cash – tens of millions of dollars a year – because of online fraud. Think about it: you pay for your pillow and to check a bag because some degenerate can’t bother to work for a living. The airlines are keeping their customers in mind (shockingly), though, and they’re fighting back. Better protection systems, increased staff and a higher priority for prevention are now on the agenda as carriers seek to protect their coffers.

The stakes are high, and airlines are exposed. A Deloitte UK survey conducted in 2009, with 50 U.S. and global airlines responding, report that 48 percent have seen increases in fraud year-over-year, with average losses of $2.4 million a year. Yet, it could be far, far worse. CyberSource and Airline Information conducted a poll and came to an estimated loss amount of $1.4 billion in 2008.

According to USA Today:

“The general feedback from everybody … is that they see it getting worse,” says Graham Pickett, partner in charge of aviation services for Deloitte UK, which conducted its survey for the International Association of Airline Internal Auditors. “The main driver has been … the Internet, and in particular credit card type bookings.”

Airlines have invested in protecting their profits over the past two years, especially the larger companies. Of course, they aren’t all that willing to talk about specific measures:

“Common sense on this issue limits a discussion of what we do to track, prevent and seek prosecution of such occurrences,” says Tim Smith, a spokesman for American Airlines. “We’re just not interested in providing a ‘how to’ lesson on the subject.”

The cyber-attack on airlines comes after online travel agencies, such as Orbitz, steeled their systems. For a while, they were the primary targets, with Orbitz, for example, getting spanked for millions of dollars a month by fraudsters.

The anti-fraud measures appear to be working. AirTran‘s team has reduced fraud losses to less than 1 percent of revenue, and Southwest says it has cut fraud by 73 percent.

How much does this matter? Think about all the small cuts you’ve had to deal with as a passenger. Every dollar matters to the airlines. Cutting fraud losses is just putting cash back in your pocket.

[photo by jepoirrier via Flickr]

Southwest uses AirTran for access to business travelers

by Tom Johansmeyer on

The key to success in the airline industry is the business traveler. This category flies often, has less flexibility in pricing and spends more on flights than a leisure traveler could possibly imagine. So, it’s hardly surprising that Southwest‘s acquisition of AirTran – a $1.42 billion transaction – could help deliver greater share of the white collar travel crowd to the low-cost carrier.

According to MSNBC:

Southwest – which currently serves key cities such as Dallas, Chicago, Denver, Phoenix and Baltimore – has long been considered a vacationer’s airline. But it has lured corporate road warriors with offers like Business Select fares that cost more but promise priority boarding, extra frequent-flier credit and a free drink.

So, we’re looking at an expansion of Southwest’s strategy into a more lucrative market. Southwest has already proved that it can thrive in the volatile leisure market, ostensibly more challenging than catering to the business crowd. It seems as though this strategic shift is as close to a “sure thing” as one can imagine in the airline industry.

The acquisition also provides Southwest with international routes, as it picks up AirTran’s access to Mexico and the Caribbean.
[photo by AGeekMom via Flickr]

What the Southwest/AirTran merger means for consumers

by George Hobica on

Southwest Airlines announced yesterday that it will acquire AirTran in a cash plus stock deal.

Here’s what to expect:

1.) Good news for AirTran passengers and travel to/from/through Atlanta in general. Southwest has better service than AirTran, and lower fees (assuming that Southwest keeps the low/no-fee model, see number 4, below). Southwest is not keeping the AirTran brand.

2.) Southwest and AirTran don’t have much route overlap, so the merger in and of itself won’t lead to higher fares. But both airlines offer aggressive airfare sales almost weekly. We’ll see fewer of these, and fares will inch up. Remember, though, that fares can only go so high before consumers stay home, drive, take the BoltBus, or Amtrak. One route that does overlap is Boston to Baltimore, which both airlines fly nonstop for $78 round-trip; but JetBlue flies the route at the same fare, so as long as there are two airlines flying nonstop on the route, prices will stay reasonable. (In fact, Baltimore probably has the most overlapping routes, so we expect fares to go up there.)

3.) More fare pressure if other airlines continue the merger dance. American and US Air must be in panic mode as Southwest continues to grow. What next? An American/US Air marriage? Frontier/Midwest combine with USAir? JetBlue+American? The Southwest/AirTran merger came out of the blue, so anything and everything could be on the table.

4.) This impacts Delta, at least at first, the most. Will Delta eliminate checked bag and ticket change fees on competing routes to/from/through Atlanta to compete with Southwest’s fee model? Or will Southwest add fees? AirTran was a minor thorn in Delta’s side, but Southwest is going be a major thorn. AirTran was not a particularly healthy airline financially, and Southwest is.

5.) Southwest now becomes an international airline, if it keeps AirTran’s routes to Aruba, the Bahamas, etc. It also becomes a multi-aircraft airline, if it keeps AirTran’s Boeing 717’s along with Southwest’s 737 fleet.6.) Silver lining: as with all mergers of this kind, a plus is that if your flight is delayed or canceled you can now be re-routed over a much bigger route structure.

7.) It’s doubtful that Southwest will keep AirTran’s business class cabins, instead moving the airline to Southwest’s one-cabin model. Same for advance seat selection, which AirTran currently offers.

8.) The merger should win speedy Justice Department and DOT approval, since there is virtually no route overlap between the two airlines.

George Hobica is the founder of Airfarewatchdog™, the most inclusive source of airfare deals that have been researched and verified by experts. Airfarewatchdog compares fares from all airlines and includes the increasing number of airline-site-only and promo code fares.

[Flickr photo via gTarded]