We all expected it: fewer international visitors are going to come to the United States this year. Overall, revenue from foreign guests is expected to fall 8 percent, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce.
Twenty-four of the top five arrival markets are likely to drop. Drops of 13 percent, 12 percent and 11 percent are likely for Ireland, Spain and Mexico, respectively, with the United Kingdom and France posting declines of around 10 percent. Canada’s anticipated drop is 6 percent.
Visits from Europe should fall 9 percent this year – the largest regional decline. It will take until 2013 for European visits to the United States to return to 2008 levels. The Asia-Pacific region is projected to fall l5 percent this year but will grow at a rate of 21 percent through 2013, leading to more than a net recovery, especially for India, China, South Korea and Australia. The 4 percent decline in South America is forecasted to turn around by 2013, with visits growing 23 percent relative to 2008. This will make it the second-fastest growing region in the world for foreign visitors to the United States.
Globally, visits to the United States from abroad are projected to grow 3 percent in 2010, followed by a 5 percent annual growth rate through 2013.
If you feel this way, you’ll love the latest study from travel research firm PhoCusWright, which estimates that the travel industry will fall back to pre-2006 levels this year. The U.S. travel market is forecasted to decline by 11 percent by the time the ball drops, reflecting a change in consumer demand levels. Frankly, people who are out of work aren’t likely to demand a hell of a lot of travel services.
For those of us sick of hearing how the Baby Boomers will change the world, the study has a nice, bright silver lining. Generation Y (the one that comes after Generation X, for those of you wondering) are opening their wallets – unlike the boomers.
People in the 25 to 34 age bracket are spending the most per household on travel, and if you’re 18 to 34, you’re more likely to plan a bit more travel this year. The Boomers (45 to 64), who pride themselves on being the wealthiest generation alive, are spending the least per household on travel. And, they’re the group most likely to make more cuts.
Generation X doesn’t care. It never cared. It’s just mad that Kurt Cobain is dead.
Unfortunately, the Gen Y surge and Boomer cut doesn’t bode well for the travel industry. The people making the least are increasing their spend, but the deep-pocketed Boomers’ cuts will more likely be felt by a struggling travel and tourism industry.
By the way, props to PhoCusWright for putting some meat in this press release.
Tourism Australia nailed it. The struggle between work and life is reaching fever pitch. Those with jobs are working harder than ever, thanks to layoffs and a desperate play to look like top performers in case the axe comes down again. It’s a battle, sometimes, to take control of your life. This is the theme of Tourism Australia’s new campaign, “No Leave, No Life,” which drives home the fact that Australians are pissing away their vacation time and aren’t giving themselves the time away that they need.
So, the organization modeled a photo on the U.S. Marines (hey, Sydney Morning Herald, marines and soldiers aren’t the same thing) raising the American flag on Mount Suribachi on Iwo Jima. You know the original picture. Everyone remembers it. Because everyone is familiar with this iconic photo, it’s easy for one to relate to it. That’s what makes Tourism Australia‘s picture of a family “raising” an umbrella particularly brilliant.
Well, there are a few people who would disagree, as you’ll see after the jump.
U.S. Army veteran (unless he’s really a marine – SMH can’t tell the different) Russell Wade wrote to Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd to complain. He’s pissed because it trivializes “an iconic picture of high significance to the American people.” Yet, he isn’t driven to anger by U.S. Marine commercials that equate fighting in a war to fantasy games in which fictional creatures are the enemy and are vanquished by knights with swords in a manner that implies death with what looks like a simple “zapping.”
Before we take Tourism Australia to task for its advertising decisions, let’s not forget that the Marines have had a few problems as well … occasionally seeming culturally tone-deaf.
Okay, back to the contested photos. Both photos were staged, so it really is a posed piece derived from a posed piece. And, it’s not like this is the worst instance of borrowing from military history and tradition to entertain, amuse or sell. Hell, where was Wade when Homer Simpson “trivialized” the U.S. Navy?
For that matter, where was he when the Village People did so? It looks like this guy has a shitload of letters to write.
The Village People can model entertainment on the U.S. military. The creators of The Simpsons can take it a step further (as they’ve done several times with the navy and the army, at this point). And, let’s face it. These go a lot deeper than modeling a photograph on a classic … mind you, a practice common in the arts.
I was a soldier for a while, and I have nothing but respect for those who served honorably. I just wish there could be a better sense of reality and an antidote for self-importance.
There may be bad news all over the travel economy, but from time to time, we’re able to dig up a positive development. The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Office of Travel and Tourism Industries was able to deliver a bit yesterday. Travel from the United Kingdom to the United States was up 3 percent in 2008 from 2007. Sure, it’s not much, but it’s better than a downward spiral.
Last year, 4.6 million people came to the United States from the UK, an increase of only 1 percent year-over-year. Just over a million of them came in the last quarter of the year, representing a drop of 11 percent from the same quarter in 2007. In November and December 2008, arrivals were down 14 percent (for each month) from the same periods in the prior year.
The first quarter of 2009 remained fairly steady, with bookings to the United States by UK tour operators down slightly. Sixty percent reported a decrease in bookings, with only 20 percent reporting projected increases. They meet in the middle at flat-to-down slightly. This trend seems likely to continue in the second quarter, with 56 percent of UK tour operators expecting trips to the United States to fall and 16 percent reporting “much lower bookings for the quarter.”
Fourth quarter arrivals from German last year reached 420,285, a gain of more than 9 percent from the same period in 2007. In October alone, 177,167 German tourists came to the United States – up 16 percent from October 2007. The pace slowed in November and December, which were up only 5 percent and 2 percent year-over-year.
And, 2009 looks good.
More than 20 percent of tour operators in Germany have reported that bookings to the United States for the first quarter of 2009 are likely to be consistent with the same period in 2008. Another 43 percent expect increases.
Of course, German travel isn’t recession-proof. The second quarter looks less favorable, with bookings down from 2007. Nearly 64 percent of German tour operators expect the pace to slow.