A gloomy travel market for 2010 will follow an ugly 2009

by Tom Johansmeyer on

Everybody seems to want the travel market to recover next year, but it looks like more time will be spent in yards, instead. According to a new USA Today/Gallup poll, only 16 percent of us are going to hit the skies or crash in hotels more than we did in what will go down in history as a dismal 2009. Close to a third said they are going to spend less time in guestrooms and cramped plane seats. The main reason, of course, continues to be the state of the economy.

Slow improvements to the economy, according to some industry analysts, should push demand for tickets and hotel rooms higher – not to mention services related to the convention and meetings business. But, the baseline is set pretty low, with 2009 having been so weak. American Express, the largest travel agency in the world, doesn’t see a recovery coming anytime soon.

The bar has been reset, and it’s low. It will stay low for a while.

The big beast to be tamed in the travel market, doubtless, is business travel. Until the corporations start to send people on the road more liberally, the airlines, hotels and other businesses involved in travel will continue to feel the squeeze.

What’s going to happen by sector? See below.

Airlines: Industry analysts see hints that the market is turning, with demand for seats up year-over-year (by month) since May. United Airlines sees “a very encouraging trend line,” and US Airways notes a steady improvement. But, the latter continues that a decline of 30 percent to 35 percent in corporate spending has been a drag, and November was the first month in which it was up year-over-year. And, November 2008 wasn’t a tough month to beat.

Analysts believe that “even a modest rise in the USA’s gross domestic product,” says USA Today, will kick the airlines back into profitability. Gary Kelly, CEO of Southwest, isn’t that optimistic, telling the newspaper, “Business travel still lags, and I don’t know that I’m comfortable in reporting that we’ve seen any improvement in that market.” He doesn’t expect business travel to bounce back next year.

Hotels: What can I say that Melanie Nayer hasn’t? Not much, really. The past year has been miserable, with PricewaterhouseCoopers reporting occupancy plunging to 55.2 percent this year, from a 2006 peak of 63.3 percent. Next year, it’s expected to tick up only to 55.8 percent.

Room rates fell precipitously in 2009 relative to 2008, causing an average decline of 16.4 percent in the industry’s average revenue per available room-night. PwC expects 2010 to be worse than 2009, conflicting with the Business Travel Monitor report from American Express. But, there’s room for both views. Leisure travelers will have to spend a bit more, but hotels in business-heavy markets will still win some favorable pricing.

Conventions: Look for a slight increase next year – again, relative to a brutal 2009. For the good news about the conventions, you’ll have to wait until 2011 and 2012, says Roger Dow, president of the U.S. Travel Association. Through the end of 2010, approximately 40 percent of corporate and association meeting planners, reports USA Today, are likely to postpone or sink off-site meetings for the next year.

Unruly Scot forces Boston landing

by Tom Johansmeyer on

US Airways Flight 728 was forced to land in Boston Monday night, far short of its London destination. John Alexander Murry, of Glasgow, was arrested just after 11 PM, causing the plane to stay on the ground for two hours before resuming its Philly-to-London route.

The 50-year-old Scottish man, according to prosecutors, was being “unruly and disruptive,” it seems. The crew continually asked him to stop blocking the aisle, but Murray allegedly wasn’t willing to comply. So, he’ll be telling his story to a judge in East Boston District Court, where he was scheduled to be arraigned on Tuesday. The charge is interfering with a flight crew.

According to a US Airways spokesman, the pilot chose to land in Boston and have Murray bounced “in the interest of safety.”

White House pushing for answers to airline industry woes

by Tom Johansmeyer on

The Obama Administration is taking a closer look at the airline industry with the hopes that something can be fixed. Transportation Secretary Roy LaHood is pulling together a panel that will investigate the problems the industry faces and hopefully come up with a solution. But, I don’t think anyone’s breath is being held.

The airlines are always swamped with criticism, with consumers unhappy about customer service levels, on-time arrivals and departures, the shrinking list of amenities and increasingly cramped conditions. Now, shareholders are speaking louder about declining revenues and profits. Employees are losing their jobs, and regulators and industry observers worry about continued safety violations, including drunk and distracted pilots.

Ultimately, LaHood’s goal is for the panel to put together “a road map for the future of the aviation industry.” The panel is being convened thanks in part to a push from the airline unions, the stakeholders worried most by the layoffs that have now become routine. According to The Associated Press, they believe the industry is “dysfunctional.”

Of course, it didn’t take the airlines to offer their thoughts ask for money — lots of it. They claim that radar technology that dates back to World War II isn’t as effective as a GPS-based alternative. The industry would love to see this upgrade … as long as the government writes the check. The FAA is already prepared to spend $15 billion to $22 billion on this effort, but there is an additional $14 billion to $20 billion currently sent over to the airlines. The upside would be reductions in airport congestion, fuel consumption and carbon emissions.

The Air Transportation Association (shockingly) thinks the taxpayers should pay the bill because the system would benefit the whole country. US Airways CEO Doug Parker wrote a letter to LaHood saying that the airlines simply don’t have the cash to meet their end of this.

Unfortunately, the airline industry has once again asked for money and not offered any solutions of its own. No suggestion was offered as to any of the other difficulties pertaining to the industry, and I tend to become suspicious when there is only one problem identified. It implies that everything could be fixed, in this case, with the replacement of radar air traffic control systems with GPS technology. We’re dealing with an industry that has lost credibility rapidly, so even if this one grand move would address ever gripe, large and small, a willing audience is unlikely to take shape.

[Photo by extremeezine via Flickr]

Galley Gossip: Advice for the employees of US Airways

by Heather Poole on
Heather,

Yesterday the flight attendants got terrible news at US Airways. THREE base closures. Mine included. In all these years, I’ve never commuted. And now, gone early next year: BOS, LGA and LAS. We got the news in the crew room. Some of the senior girls started to tear up. One cried, “I have thirty years, I’ve never commuted.” The base is closing and we didn’t even receive any information on base transfers, voluntary furloughs, whether or not we can keep our parking lot space, bidding packets from the other bases and seniority lists to help make a decision. Any tips? Prayers? An Article to educate us newbies?

Sincerely,

In shock

Dear in shock,

I’m sorry to hear about the unfortunate news. I understand why you and your colleagues are frustrated and upset. Honestly, I’m not sure which is worse, your airline closing three bases or the fact that they did not alert employees until the last minute, only to do so with little to no information. These are your lives we’re talking about, not just base closures! While commuting is not always easy, it is doable, and chances are you might even become a better flight attendant because of it. I know I did. First, here’s the prayer you’re looking for. And now for a few tips…


1. EMBRACE IT – Now that you’ll be traveling like a real passenger….wait a minute, take that back, you’re the farthest thing from a real passenger. You’re at the bottom of the standby list and there’s nothing you can do about it. So stop fighting it and learn to enjoy it – as much as you possibly can. I do so by reading – a lot.

2. CHOOSE A BASE WISELY: Don’t choose the base with the best flying if you won’t be able to get there easily. Pick a base that offers several flights a day from your home city. And don’t go where everyone else who has just been displaced wants to go! I can’t tell you how many Dallas commuters think I’m crazy for commuting from California to New York. Yet their standby list is insane compared to mine. Not only do I always get on a flight, I usually end up with a pretty good seat! That’s because there aren’t that many LA commuters who work in New York. It also means in a worst case scenario the jump seat is mine!

3. GET CREATIVE: Because the flights are usually full, it’s not always easy getting to work. Prior to 9/11, I would fly to Toronto and connect to New York in order to avoid holiday traffic. Yeah, that was a little crazy, but it worked, even during the busy Christmas season! And don’t forget that sometimes those “thru” flights really aren’t thru flights at all. Many often stop at a hub city. Get to know these flights well, the ones that are scheduled to arrive in Kansas City but actually make a quick stop in a hub city, and then jump off and connect to where you really need to go.

4. BACK IT UP: Commuting can be stressful, which is why I arrange my schedule so that I’m only commuting once a month. I’ll back up my trips and work for several days in a row, flying as many hours as I can until I get the hours I need for the month. Sure it’s a killer, and half the time I have no idea where I am, whether I’m coming or going, but when I’m done I have the rest of the month off to recuperate. Don’t t waste your “days off” trying to get to and from work.

5. BID SMART: Forget about layovers. They no longer matter. Bid for “commutable trips.” Look for late departures and early returns. The layovers might be short, but this will enable you to travel to and from work on the days you’re scheduled to work, allowing your days off to remain just that – days off. That’s why we took this job, isn’t it – for the days off? If you do choose to back up your trips, look for a late departure on the first day of your first trip and an early return on the last day of your last trip. This will make bidding easier because what you work in-between these two trips won’t matter in terms of commuting.

6. FIND A CRASH PAD: If on reserve, find a crashpad and you won’t have to sleep in flight operations. I’m sure there’s a bulletin board somewhere in ops where you can find fliers from fight attendants looking for roommates. A crashpad usually averages around $150 per month. Or try calling airport hotels / motels offering free shuttle service to and from the airport and ask if they offer a “crew discount” on rooms that will only be occupied for a few hours. Once I overheard a pilot refer to this as an “emergency crew rate.” He got the room for next to nothing. Share the room with a fellow commuter to save a little cash.

7. GET TO KNOW THE GATE AGENTS: Agents have power, big time power, because they’re the ones controlling the seating chart. They decide whether or not you’ll get a middle seat – or if you get on a flight at all. Do yourself a favor and make friends with these people. It won’t be easy. They’re just as overworked as we are and they hear the exact same moans and groans from passengers as we do, so tread lightly, don’t become another one of their problems, and always, ALWAYS, respect the counter. Stand at least ten feet away. Remember, whether you’re an agent or a flight attendant, we’re all on the same team. Let’s try to treat each other that way.

8. WATCH THE WEATHER CHANNEL – It’s important to know what’s going on weather-wise around the country. If there’s a storm in the forecast on the day of your commute, you might want to get out a day earlier. If that’s not possible, make sure to get on the first flight of the day! Do not get caught up in delays that are bound to come later on in the day. A cancellation will nine times out of ten ruin your chance of getting to work. Save the “missed trip” for a time you really need it.

9. TRIP TRADING: If you don’t know how to do a “trip trade” you better learn quick! Often times, while commuting, there’s not enough time to ask for help when you desperately need to change your schedule. Otherwise you can do what I do and pay someone to do the dirty work for you. If I’m at the airport and unsure if I’m going to make it out, I’ll call my “trip trader” who will either drop the trip or trade it for a different trip later on in the month. If not for my trip trader, I don’t know what I’d do. She truly works magic and is worth every penny.

10. BECOME A BETTER FLIGHT ATTENDANT: Now that you’re stuck in a crap seat with nothing to do but analyze the flight attendants, you’ll have a better understanding of how the other half lives. I can honestly say I’ve mellowed out because of my commuting lifestyle. I now have a lot more patience and empathy for passengers than I did when I first started flying. Not only will this make you a better flight attendant, it will make you a more rounded individual. That, I think, is a gift.

Once you get over the initial shock, you and your colleagues will be just fine.

Good luck!

Heather Poole

Photos courtesy of carribb – US Airways, Heather Poole – woman reading & crashpad fliers

United to receive heavy fine for towel stuffed in engine

by Katie Hammel on

US Airways and United Airlines both stand to receive multi-million dollar fines from the FAA for maintenance violations.

US Airways’ violations include failing to inspect cargo doors and landing gear on a few plans and for failing to perform routine checks on dozen of others. US Airways responded quickly to the news, saying that the violations stem from the integration of their maintenance systems back from October 2008 to January of 2009, and that they are working on addressing the issues. The airline could be fined up to $5.4 million. This is the isn’t the first time US Airways has been fined this year either. In January, they were fined for violating rules involving oversold flights.

United’s violation is perhaps more troubling. The airline faces a $3.8 million fine for a single incident. In April 2008, a Boeing 737 returned to Denver after its engine shut down with low oil pressure. When the engine was inspected, two shop towels were inside. The towels “had been used to cover openings in the oil sump area” instead of the regulation caps. The towels were believed to have been there since December 2007, when maintenance was performed on the engine. This sounds terrifying, but according to the Cranky Flier website, it isn’t quite as scary as it sounds. The caps are only used during maintenance and then removed.

But still, the FAA is taking the incident seriously. “As a result of United’s failure to follow its maintenance procedures. . .it flew the aircraft on more than 200 revenue flights when it was not in an airworthy condition,” the FAA said in a statement.

[via ABC News Denver]