Is American Airlines making a “reckless rodeo bet”?

by Tom Johansmeyer on

American Airlines’ decision to pull out of Orbitz has triggered a war in the travel industry, as airlines and online travel agencies vie for ownership of the customer. The latest step was Expedia’s decision to minimize the exposure of American Airline options in searches on its site, likely a play to reduce the risk of a move by American to pull out of Expedia, too.

According to a statement by the Business Travel Coalition, this could erode American Airlines‘ standing in the market further. In addition to losing visibility on a major booking site, the airline will lose the additional sales that come when a visitor to an online travel agency leaves the site to book directly with the airline.

Says Kevin Mitchell, chairman of the Business Travel Coalition, said, “American is making a reckless rodeo bet that it can rope its best customers like calves and then push and pull and kick them toward aa.com and Direct Connect.” He continued, “Online consumers may not even know American’s flights are missing. The ones who will gain the most here are American’s competitors United, Southwest and others. They should be thankful for this early Christmas present.”
Striking a somewhat alarmist tone, Mitchell noted that American Airlines Direct Connect “takes the consumer problem of hidden airline fees to a much darker and dangerous place for consumers.”

While this may be a bit extreme, there are clear implications of the shakeup, especially for bargain-shoppers and occasional leisure travelers.

The fact that Expedia appears to have come to the defense of its competitor, as Mitchell stated – “Expedia’s decision to support the consumer and its competitor Orbitz underscores the enormity of the economic damage American Airlines’ Direct Connect plans could have on consumers due to lessoned [sic] price transparency and impeded comparison shopping” – should be taken within the context of what could happen to Expedia’s business if it didn’t implement this defensive measure.

The real impact of this is pretty simple: customers loyal to the American Airlines brand will continue to buy from American Airlines. Those who are searching for the cheapest fares will balance their behavior between visiting online travel agencies and airline websites.

American Airlines may not have made a “reckless rodeo” bet, but is making a statement about the future of its business. The airline is betting on its own brand, and the online travel agency community is responding.

[photo by ReneS via Flickr]

Expedia demotes American Airlines, airline booking war gets HOT

by Tom Johansmeyer on

Could the battle between airlines and online travel agencies have gotten any more intense? This week, American Airlines got the green light in court to yank its fares from Orbitz, and Delta announced that it was pulling out of several smaller sites – CheapOair, OneTravel and BookIt. Travel industry experts are saying it’s about time, but that doesn’t lessen the shock to the business, especially with the rapid succession. Well, if you didn’t think it couldn’t get any crazier, brace yourself: the online travel agency community is fighting back.

Expedia is changing the way it shows American Airlines flights on its site, making it “extremely difficult” for users to find them, according to ABC News. Is it a show of solidarity, as Scott Mayerowitz of ABC puts it, or could it be an early form of risk management? By reducing its reliance on the American Airlines relationship, Expedia can mitigate the impact of an American withdrawal from its own site.

And let’s not underestimate the financial damage involved: the move by American with Orbitz could cause a nine-figure loss. For the first three quarters of 2010, the sale of American flights was worth approximately $800 million to the latter.

Mayerowitz confirms what I wrote several weeks ago, that a “full out war,” as he puts it, is at hand.At the beginning of December, I noticed that the increasing fares, an outcome of many economic developments, was indicative of a positive development for the airlines. Not only does it mean they can charge more, but it suggests that traveler price sensitivity is waning. Since airline web sites still own the bulk of online sales, the stronger brands of airlines will lead to continued growth in 2011, some of it likely to come at the expense of online travel agencies such as Expedia, Orbitz and CheapOair.

That forecast has become a reality.

This latest development, by Expedia, does not remove American from its site completely. The airlines flights still show up in search results, but the fare is not listed. Instead, users have to click a link to see the details.

Given the competitive landscape, it does seem evident that this is a defensive move on Expedia’s part. Expedia’s statement to ABC News is full of business risk management language:

“This has been done in light of both American Airlines’ recent decision to prevent Orbitz from selling its inventory and a possible disruption in Expedia’s ability to sell American Airlines tickets when our contract with American Airlines expires,” Expedia said in a statement to ABC News. “American Airlines has shown it only intends to do business with travel agencies through a new model that is anti-consumer and anti-choice.”

Basically, Expedia is saying it doesn’t want to get caught with its pants down – as Orbitz was. By taking early action to reduce its reliance on American, it can facilitate a smooth transition at the end of its contract (if necessary) or at least maintain a solid negotiating position.

ABC News reports that passengers looking for bargains will have to work a little harder as a result of this trend toward fragmentation, but the implications may not be as severe as it seems. Bargain-hunting has always involved a measure of this sort of behavior, as would-be buyers would hit airline sites as well as several online travel agencies. This is reinforced by the fact, according to data from travel industry research firm PhoCusWright, that 28 percent of visitors to online travel agencies ultimately make their purchases directly from airline websites.

The airlines have the brand advantage here, as that’s where the bulk of the experience occurs, not to mention that a visit to an online travel agency likely indicates that price, rather than brand recognition or loyalty is the motivator. And, like the online travel agencies, they also sell hotels and other ancillary services, meaning that they can compete head-to-head.

So, why are there any online travel agencies at all?

The booking sites actually play an important role in the travel business, which is why they exist and will continue to do so. In any market where there is both a wide variety of choices and price sensitivity, consumers can benefit from a bit of help in making the decision. This includes being able to compare prices and routes and put together packages across multiple sectors (airlines, hotels, rental cars and so on) that maximize value through comparison. As intermediaries, they make the process of navigating alternatives easier.

Since the online travel agencies are able to amass a market this way, they gain the power to negotiate with travel suppliers (such as airlines and hotels) to offer some discounts, which makes the sites more attractive to buyers. Over time, this has created a robust channel for the booking sites, which do billions of dollars a year in business. They remain an important part of the strategy of any travel supplier, even if it means sacrificing some revenue in order to win the customer. Online travel agencies remain a great way to reach the price-sensitive customer.

But, as I mentioned, the changes in the economic climate are making price less of an issue, and the airlines are aware of this. They see an opportunity to claim more of the revenue for themselves, not to mention long-term ownership of the customer relationship. And what has followed has been the brewing war between online travel agencies and their suppliers.

The decisions by the likes of American and Delta aren’t surprising, given these market conditions, but what about Expedia? Doesn’t it seem like they’re sacrificing some revenue to make a point?

Well, it may not be that simple.

It makes sense to cut its risk a bit, given American’s decision to pull its inventory from Orbitz. Also, it appears to be betting on the fact that a visitor to Expedia doesn’t care about getting an American Airlines flight. Rather, the visitor wants a flight: there’s a difference between New York to San Francisco and New York to San Francisco on American. The customer who wants the former won’t be affected by the absence of a particular airline’s fares on a booking site. A customer who wants the latter would more likely go to the airline’s site directly. The only concern for Expedia is whether the flights by American were priced favorably relative to other airlines, and the loss of any negotiated fare deals it had.

What comes next? Well, that’s hard to say. Douglas Quinby, Sr. Director, Research, at PhoCusWright, told me earlier this week that “American may have jumped the gun a bit with Orbitz, but believe me – we ain’t see nothin’ yet!” There will be more changes in the near future it seems, but this appears to be tempered by the belief by some travel industry experts that the airlines and online travel agencies will find ways to mend their relationships. American and Orbitz, for example, are expected to find a way to work together again, and Bill Miller, Sr. Vice President of strategic partnerships at CheapOair, told Tnooz, “”We’ve had a 10-plus-year partnership with Delta and we fully expect to renew our contract with Delta in 2011. This is our only comment at this time.”

Airlines will need to find a way to work with the online travel agencies, and the online travel agencies will need to demonstrate their value to the airlines … a typical obligation for a market intermediary. My guess is that the dust will eventually settle, and the market will return to a happy medium.

But, it all comes down to the consumer.

If the airlines can make substantial gains, the booking sites will become less relevant. If the online travel agencies can solidify their brands and become more present and important to consumers, they’ll regain some of their recession-period negotiating power.

For now, the two sides are amping up the intensity, and we can sit back and watch the fireworks.

[photo by rjones0856 via Flickr]

Update: This story has been modified to reflect that the $800 million is from American Airlines flights only and does not include ancillary fees.

Will Orbitz and American Airlines kiss and make up?

by Tom Johansmeyer on

The recent decision by American Airlines to pull its inventory from Orbitz caused quite a stir. A major change in an $800 million relationship will do that, of course. Some industry-watchers, however, don’t see it as a permanent situation. In a report by WFAA, Tom Parsons, owner of BestFares.com, said, “Three months down the line, nobody will even know American’s there, and I think the loser will be American.”

He believes that consumers still have plenty of choices, which is likely to lead to a gain for other carriers working with Orbitz.

But, it’s a situation that could cut either way. When Southwest Airlines pulled away from Orbitz, it assumed a similar risk. Now, the low-cost carrier moves 85 percent of its tickets via its website. While this has worked for Southwest, it does operate in a fundamentally different market.

Parsons believes that Orbitz and American Airlines will work together again, according to WFAA.

[photo by DavidMartynHunt via Flickr]

When airlines pull out of travel websites, who loses?

by Tom Johansmeyer on

It’s been a busy week. The action with airlines and online travel agencies has been brisk, and in the end, it affects you as much as it affects them. Sure, there’s plenty of money involved for the travel sites and the airlines, but in the end, it all comes down to what you experience during the buying process. These changes – with American Airlines and Orbitz and Delta and CheapOair – will have an effect on you and on which airline you fly next.

Doubtless, the numbers are big. Orbitz generated $800 million in revenue by selling flights on American in the first nine months of 2010, though some of it came from ancillary services. While CheapOair’s revenues from Delta aren’t available, let’s not lose sight of the fact that it’s the largest airline in the United States, so the impact can’t be trivial.

Are the airlines eyeing all that business and trying to claim it for themselves? There’s a flaw in that thinking, according to the Business Travel Coalition. In a statement released last night, it noted that American Airlines may lose some of the revenue it books through Orbitz, and you’re the reason why.

The dynamic is pretty straightforward. According to data from travel industry research firm PhoCusWright, the BTC says, 87 percent of travelers turn to the internet when they start shopping for tickets. Also, around 28 percent of the would-be travelers who visit online travel agencies wind up buying their tickets on the airlines’ websites instead.In practical terms, let’s say you’re looking for a flight, and you go to Orbitz. On Orbitz, you notice options from American Airlines. There’s a one-in-four chance, roughly, you’ll just go to American’s site to buy your ticket.

Now, what happens if you don’t see American on Orbitz (or Delta on CheapOair)? Well, you may see a flight on United, and go to that airline’s website to make your purchase. That’s a lost opportunity for the airline that pulled out of the online travel agency.

As Kevin Mitchell, BTC chairman, puts it: “American acts as if it’s the country’s biggest airline when it’s really number four and falling. Consumers may not even know American’s flights are missing. The ones who will gain the most here are American’s competitors who will enjoy feasting this Christmas on turkey served up by American. Delta, United, Southwest and others should be grateful for this early Christmas present.”

He adds: “American’s decision to immediately pull its flight information from Orbitz shows that it has near-zero interest in preserving an open and transparent marketplace. It is an outrageous act that will negatively impact consumers nationwide who are in the midst of comparison-shopping for their holiday travel. Moreover, American is tacitly acknowledging that if a consumer booked an American flight on Orbitz, and now needs to change it, she will need to work through American Airlines. That’s a recipe for huge consumer confusion and frustration right in the heart of the holiday season.”

The same, of course, could be said about Delta in regards to CheapOair, though on a much smaller scale, given that CheapOair forecasts 2010 total revenue of $1.2 billion (compared to $800 million in revenue related to American Airlines alone for Orbitz).

So, it all comes back to you. The airlines want you. The online travel agencies want you. This is why the battle for the consumer is intensifying. And, with fares on the rise and economic conditions stabilizing, the stakes are getting higher. For the airlines, direct ownership of the consumer certainly has its perks, but it also comes with a handful of risks. They may be serving business up to the competition, as Mitchell said.

Airlines and online travel agencies are king some pretty big bets on how you will book your tickets. Ultimately, however, the decision is entirely yours.

[photo by cliff1066 via Flickr]

Which BIG airline just pulled out of three booking sites?

by Tom Johansmeyer on

As you’ve read here on Gadling, the battle between airlines and online travel agencies is poised to heat up. For the past few years, a dismal economy has sent many bargain-hunters to online travel sites with the hopes of finding fantastic deals and minimizing the pain in their wallets. Yet, with the travel market and the broader economy showing signs of recovery, airlines‘ brand power will gain momentum, and customers with more cash at their disposal will favor convenience and recognition over saving a couple of dollars. A battle for your money and your loyalty is brewing.

And, it’s just intensified.

Last month, American Airlines and Orbitz tangled over fees and the booking process, with the airline threatening to yank its inventory from the travel site, a threat on which it made good. After a temporary restraining order was issued, a judge ruled yesterday that American could pull its inventory from the online travel agency and ordered Orbitz to stop selling American Airlines tickets and displaying its fares.

Now, Delta‘s getting in on the action.

The airline has yanked its inventory from a handful of smaller online travel agencies, Aviation Week reports, including CheapOair, OneTravel and Bookit as of last Friday. So, if you’re hunting for cheap tickets on these sites, you won’t run into Delta any more. Aviation Week observes that it appears to be “part of a partial shift in its distribution strategy,” and notes that it seems different from American’s move with Orbitz.For Delta, the decision looks like it’s part of an effort to consolidate around larger online travel agencies, while American is targeting agencies directly, rather than using an intermediary to reach another intermediary.

While the means may be different, the objective appears to be the same. With a shift in the economy, airlines have a bolstered position in the marketplace, and this is likely to give them a bit more weight in dealing with online travel agencies and in reaching consumers directly. For American, it seems like a play to reduce costs and increase efficiency – as it is for Delta (though through different means). Ultimately, however, Delta wants more direct action from consumers, which reduces its sales costs and increases profits, which is what differentiates its decision from that of American.

According to a statement by Delta in Aviation Week, “Delta is being more selective in our use of online travel sites in the future as we continually work to improve our online distribution strategy.” The company adds, “We continue to make significant investments in delta.com to make it an industry-leading travel site, and we believe that delta.com will become the preferred online site to book travel on Delta.”

A representative from CheapOair was not available for comment.

I asked Douglas Quinby, Sr. Director, Research, at travel industry research firm PhoCusWright, his thoughts on Delta’s decision, and his reply was pretty striaghtforward: “The only surprising thing about this move is that it has taken this long.” He explained, “U.S. airlines have impressively restrained their appetite for growth (i.e. capacity) on the back of a (more or less) recovering economy. With clear control of their inventory, airlines have already started rationalizing distribution, and the weakest links are first to get snipped. American may have jumped the gun a bit with Orbitz, but believe me – we ain’t see nothin’ yet!”

So, what’s the net effect of all this? Do the actions of Delta and American suggest that we’ll be paying higher fares in the future because of behavior that doesn’t benefit the consumer? My bet is that the average fare buyer won’t see a whole lot of difference, especially given the share of sales already owned by the airlines via their own websites. The infrequent leisure traveler, especially, is losing an alternative … though it’s one that won’t be as important in a recovering economy.

[photo by boeingdreamscape]