Which Site Has The Most Accurate Weather Forecasts?

by Dave Seminara on

Human beings have no control over the weather, but when I’m on a trip or planning one, I tend to check the weather forecast obsessively when the weather is not to my liking. If it’s too hot, too cold, too wet, or windy, I want to know how bad it’s going to be and when it’ll get better. And if the weather is just fine, I tend not to check the forecast at all, for fear of breaking the good luck pattern.

I’ve used a variety of weather sites, including CNN, The Weather Channel, Weather Underground, Accuweather, and a host of others over the years but have yet to find one that I think is very reliable for locations outside North America. I don’t expect long-range forecasts to be very accurate, even in the U.S., but when you wake up and check what the weather is supposed to be like that day, you expect it to be fairly accurate.

I’ve been traveling in Europe for the last two months and have all the places I’ve been to plugged into my list of cities on my iPod weather app, which is powered by The Weather Channel. It never ceases to amaze me how inaccurate the predictions are on this site/app, even for same day forecasts.Yesterday, for example, we were in Syros, Greece, and when I woke up and saw that, according to the Weather Channel, the high temperature here was going to be 84 degrees, I thought we were going to be in for a beautiful day. We planned to tour, Ermoupoli, the island’s hilly capital, on foot without the benefit of a rental car.

We left our apartment at 10 a.m. and it already felt like it was in the upper 80s and humid, and it only got worse from there. By 10:30, my shirt was already completely soaked through and I wanted to return to our place for a cool shower. I kept wondering what the temperature was but couldn’t find any signs displaying it.

In the evening, I asked four locals what they thought the high temperature had been that day and they all guessed between 34-37, which is 93-98 Fahrenheit. People are prone to exaggeration though, so when I got home I checked a variety of weather sites to see how they recorded the actual high temperature here.

The recordings ranged between 90-94, a far cry from 84, and the high temperature forecasts for the following day varied from the Weather Channel’s low-ball estimate of 82 to a local website’s prediction of 88. Of course, we’ve also enjoyed the serendipity of experiencing glorious weather when the forecasts called for rain. On one occasion, while we were in Lucca, the forecast looked so unremittingly wet and gloomy that we nearly changed our plans to go somewhere else – thankfully we didn’t because the weather turned out to be lovely. In fairness to all the weather sites, you really only tend to remember forecasts when they’re wrong.

Which site has the most accurate forecasts? A quick troll of the Internet doesn’t reveal a conclusive answer to the question. Five years ago, a site called Omninerd published a study that concluded that The Weather Channel and a site called Intellicast were best at making long term forecasts, but they found no clear winner in the short- to medium-term forecast category.

Needless to say, I take my forecasts with a massive grain of salt, especially using websites based in the U.S. for overseas forecasts. Let us know which sites you find to be most and least accurate in predicting the weather, or do you not bother to check the forecast at all, since there’s nothing you can do about the weather anyway?

%Poll-75811%

Update: The Weather Channel was way off on Syros weather again today. My iPod told me it would be a high of 82 today and it actually reached 92, according to local media here. TWC thinks it’s going to be a high of 82 here again tomorrow, but I’m not banking on it. Note to TWC: It’s hot in Greece! Much hotter than you think.

(Note: The National Weather Service isn’t used in the poll since it only makes forecasts for the U.S.)

[Photo by Mendhak on Flickr]

Dust Storms Descend On The Middle East

by Dan Morgridge on

A spate of dust storms caused massive disruptions and several fatalities in the Middle East this week. In Pakistan, winds reaching up to 68mph struck the twin cities of Rawalpindi and Islamabad, destroying roofs, uprooting trees, upending billboards, and reducing visibility to under 100 meters. Flights out of Islamabad International Airport were delayed, and at least fifteen fatalities were recorded.

Elsewhere, in Kuwait, heavy dust storms shut down the Basra ports, paralyzing tankers and costing the country some 1,000,000 barrels a day in exports. Flights out of Kuwait International Airport were continuing with normal, albeit limited service. This follows a late May dust storm that shut down Baghdad’s airport only days before a critical nuclear talk. And a dust storm near Mecca raised temperatures to 113 degrees before giving way to a rainstorm – possibly the hottest rainfall on record at 109 degrees F.

Dust storms can seriously impact travel in the Middle East, and visitors are cautioned against the dangers of going out into a storm without proper preparation. The gallery below documents some of the biggest storms in the region to date.

%Gallery-157713%

Sleeping In Seattle: The Consequences Of SAD

by Laurel Miller on

I recently mentioned my somewhat reluctant decision to relocate from Seattle when the right opportunity presents itself (A job and nice one bedroom in Berkeley, North Oakland or Boulder anyone? Anyone?).

While my move was precipitated by a layoff in February, I’ve known for a year that a relocation was necessary, regardless of my affection for my adopted city – despite my beautiful, relatively affordable apartment just two blocks from Lake Union and my peaceful, tree-lined neighborhood full of pretty houses brimming with gardens and backyard chickens. Even though I can walk everywhere, crime is virtually nonexistent and my landlord rocks.

The real reason I’m leaving Seattle is because I suffer from Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) and arthritis (due to a bizarre infectious disease acquired in Ecuador three years ago). SAD is thought to result from a shift in the body’s circadian rhythms, due to changes in sunlight patterns (think of how certain mammals hibernate in winter). Shorter, darker days also increase the amount of melatonin, a hormone linked to the regulation of sleep and waking, released by the pineal gland. Perhaps my being a Southern California native is to blame (although I’m officially a resident of Colorado…it’s complicated, I know).
It took me a long time to commit to a move to the Pacific Northwest, despite my love of the region, because I was concerned about the climate. But, like many before me, I was seduced by a record-breaking Seattle summer three years ago when the temperature soared into the upper 80s and the sky remained a clear, vivid blue. The job prospects appeared promising and an incredible sublet fell into my lap. I was in Seattle for the weekend for work and a month later, I was living there. It was like I’d hijacked myself.

My friend Chris has lived in Seattle since 1994. We were hanging out during my visit when I announced I was going to move. “It’s not usually like this,” he cautioned. I was busy gaping at Mt. Rainier in the distance.

He didn’t lie. I’ve been waiting for the weather to be like that ever since. I was filled with anticipatory dread before my first winter, which is why I’d initially only committed to a sublet. It turned out to be the mildest winter Seattle had seen in years, causing me to mock the locals I’d met. “Just wait,” they told me ominously (for a different viewpoint, check out my Gadling colleague Pam Mandel’s ode to Seattle winters, here).

The last two winters – which have been harsh, even by Seattle standards – have kicked my ass. It’s not the “snow” we’ve gotten; I love snow. But Colorado averages 300 days of sunshine a year, and it has a tolerable, dry cold. Seattle cold seeps into the bones, and summer is a negligible term for most of that season. I actually didn’t realize I had post-infectious arthritis until two years ago, when the Fourth of July dawned wet and dismal, and my joints felt like they’d entered their golden years overnight.

Since then, I’ve experienced varying intensities of arthralgia in my hands and knees as well as low-level to serious fatigue. As a runner, this was problematic and my depression increased because I had turned from physically active, adventurous outdoor fanatic to couch potato. I often required daily naps, which wracked me with guilt.

Not until last summer, while visiting my former home of Boulder, Colorado, did I fully realize the impact Seattle was having on my physical and mental health. On my first morning, to quote a SAD-suffering friend, I felt like “someone had turned the world’s lights back on.” I marveled at the sunshine and warm air. I shocked myself by effortlessly doing a three-mile run – the first half uphill. Every day, I stayed outside until sunset. My arthritis had vanished. I felt like me, again: the spaz who can’t stand to be indoors when the sun is shining. I was productive and active and a much, much happier person. I had the same experience while in northern Chile in August.

I returned to Seattle and wham! I morphed into the worst of the seven dwarfs again: sleepy, grumpy and lazy. Work circumstances forced me to postpone a move, and it seemed like every day it was either pissing rain or the sky was low and leaden. I had difficulty concentrating on work, and was irritable and overemotional. Desperate, I sought the care of an excellent psychiatrist, who combined talk therapy with antidepressants.

While getting laid off sucked, it was also a strange relief. The one thing tying me to Seattle was gone. The thought of leaving is disappointing, but life is too short to live embedded in the couch. The economy is picking up in the Bay Area and I’ve had some very promising job leads.

It’s hard to admit that the color of the sky exerts such influence over your mood. However, I’m not alone; according to Mental Health America, three out of four SAD sufferers are women.

My advice: the sooner you admit it, the sooner you can get on with living. Whether you require phototherapy, antidepressants, extra Vitamin D, counseling, acupuncture, warm-weather vacations, or relocation, the bottom line is that SAD is very real and can have a devastating impact upon your quality of life as well as your personal and professional relationships and career. And, like a romance that’s not quite right, it’s not worth sticking it out. Me? I’ve decided that Seattle is ideal for the occasional weekend fling.

Signs you may be suffering from SAD (these symptoms are most likely to occur in winter, but some forms of SAD do occur during the summer)

  • Inability to concentrate or increase in irritability
  • Feelings of sadness, unhappiness, or restlessness
  • Fatigue and/or lethargy
  • Anxiety
  • Increase in appetite/weight gain
  • Social withdrawal
  • Increase in sleep and daytime sleepiness
  • Loss of interest in work and activities you once enjoyed

Where to get help:

Talk to your health care provider, who can refer you to a specialist. For additional information and support, check out the Seasonal Affective Disorder Association (SADA) website.

[Photo credits:girl, Flickr user Meredith_Farmer; clouds, Flickr user CoreBurn;sun, Flickr user Warm ‘n Fuzzy]

Hipster Hats that Make Me Happy

by Pam Mandel on

We’re no Portland or Brooklyn, but dude, you can’t swing a cat in Seattle without hitting a 20 something in something tweedy, a vest, maybe, and a flat cap. The thing is, you need a good hat in this town, it’s not totally impractical to protect your melon from the relentless drizzle that dampens our spirits and waters down our Americanos. As much as I try to mock the bearded skinny jeans what on earth is your day job and did you think about how that tattoo is going to look when you are 50 plus all that bacon is bad for you set, I can’t argue with a good hat. I just can’t.

Which is why I left the house in a Tilley Endurable Ivy Cap. I joined the hipster masses and you know what people said? “Nice headwear!” The other style I tried, the Tec-Wool, got the same response. What did I say? I said you can’t argue with a good hat. No one even tried.

Here’s what I like about the Tilley winter caps. They have quilted lining and tuck away low profile ear flaps, so they’re really warm and get warmer when you pull the ear flaps out. There’s a secret pocket in the top where you can keep your bus pass or your marching orders or that love letter that really appeals to your brain. They’re made of a very water resistant wool and they keep their shape when you smash them in your backpack with your laptop and your refillable coffee canister and all the other stuff you carry around. There’s a little cinch strap inside so you can adjust the fit — a nice touch. Both caps come in a tweedy brown or a textured black that’s really a very dark charcoal gray. And I think I mentioned, they look great.Both caps are $76.00, a pretty penny to drop on a hat, but they come with a lifetime guarantee which includes — get this, insurance against loss for two years. You’ll need your receipt or registration form, so don’t lose that too, and if you can prove you bought a hat, Tilley will replace it. Really. I asked, twice, because I didn’t believe it the first time. The lifetime guarantee will outlast hipster fashion, I promise you.

These things are great for wearing out and about around town, to the microbrewery, while shopping for artisanal cheeses or smoked meats, or heading to a knitters meetup, but they’re also great for travel to blustery cold places where you just need to be warm. Want one? Measure your head (they come in multiple sizes) and to the Tilley website.

Oh, and yes, that’s me in the picture. I look like a freaking hipster. I don’t care.

Video of the Day: Snow on the beach in Split, Croatia

by Mike Barish on

Extreme cold and snow have gripped parts of Europe in ways that the continent has not experienced in years. The images of people struggling to cope with the elements are chilling (no pun intended). Even in Split, Croatia, a coastal town on the Adriatic Sea, snow has blanketed the beaches as temperatures have plunged nearly 30 degrees below average for this time of year. Seeing people walk along the palm tree-lined shore as snow falls unrelentingly is almost too incongruous to process.