The UN World Tourism Organization just changed its mind about global travel and tourism this year. I guess forecasting is easy when you can always issue a new one … as long as the previous efforts are forgotten. Well, I wish I could tell you that the UN believes we’ve turned the corner – and that travel is going to spike this year. But, it isn’t. The group has added a bit more doom and gloom to its prediction, given continued economic instability and the swine flu situation.
Worldwide, the organization predicted a 4 percent to 6 percent international tourism decline for the year – this is down from the January prediction of zero to 2 percent. The changed direction coincides with the International Monetary Fund‘s sense of the global economic situation. In January, it called for economic growth of 2 percent this year. Now, it’s predicting a fall of 1.3 percent.
For the first four months of 2009, the World Tourism Organization noted an 8 percent drop in global tourism, with only 247 international tourism arrivals. Europe‘s results were more severe than those of the world as a whole, off 10 percent. Asia was down 6 percent, and Africa and South America were up 3 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively.
Even in tough times, everybody wants to go to France, which remained the top tourism destination with 79 million arrivals. The United States moved into second place for the first time since the September 11, 2001 attacks, reclaiming its position from Spain.